Moore Made the Law or the Law made Moore

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待着…… The Last Virgin Boy on This Dirty Planet!!!!! 照片猛击此处进入 <<<反省一下上一篇的得意忘形 | 首页 | 安达充>>> 2004-11-18 关于摩尔定律 micromachine上周的作业是读书报告，一篇关于摩尔定律的文章，是个学经济的人写的，很有意思。 怎么说在下也算半的IT人士，似乎中学就知道这个以7大单位之一而命名的定律，可从来也没有花30秒的时间集中精神想过这个看似很简单的东西。今天我算花了一个小时来考虑这个问题，有点收获。 我的结论是，多半摩尔是随意的作出了预言，1975年以后的复合，纯粹像中学的我们，逐字逐句的解读鲁迅大人的文章一样，是我们自己在写作。或许他是外星人，做出一个预言，料到所有因素，用一句话或多或少的改变了这个世界。 不多说了，我把作业贴一下。本来想好好写，可是睡眠真是有为青年最大的敌人。想写字的时候不能写，就像该射（篮）的时候没有射一样扫兴。 Moore Made the Law or the Law made Moore 安 安 An An 44041501 First of all, I want to say this is the most interesting article I have read about the Moore’s law. It reminds me an old story, a famous (maybe not so famous) prophet promised to his king that he would know the precise date of his death. However, it was a pity that he didn’t enjoy a natural death at that day, and then he killed himself. And in this paper, the most attractive part for me is not the analysis of how Moore reaches his law but why the law is so precise and lasting for almost 40 years (seems this time will be increasing. ) in a such complicated area which includes nearly all the nature physical science and engineering challenge. In the first paragraph, the author concludes that the invention of planar circuit is the precondition of the Moore’s Law. I would like to agree on this point ,and also ,in my opinion ,this invention is an amazing innovation, so do those Switzer, therefore they award Mr. Jack Kilby the first Nobel Prize winner as an engineer in 2000. Based on the model of planar circuit and taking account of several other factors such as processing technology, design methodology.( some of these are proponed by Moore in 1975, ten years after he verified his law proudly in an IEEE paper.) Up to here, I read nothing fresh comparing to the introduction about the Moore’s Law before, which never activates me to think about it using even 1 second. Is Moore so prescient that he can find such an unbelievable rule? The answer is yes if we just check the roadmap. Whereas is there any possibility that in some sense the market, companies and the researchers consciously followed the Moore’ Law or be chained by it or the market in some way? ( Especially after 1975) E.g. the falling behind companies take effort to catch up the pace of the law, and the successful companies may slow their pace down or ,in another word ,they are happy to take a rest for their being ahead of the Moore’s Law. If you can accept that, we might as well predict the future of the Moore’s law with all the factors above. Certainly, it is likely for devices get to their physics limits, e.g. the quantum tunneling effect magnifies to destruct the function of the device. Otherwise, the processing technology is not able to satisfy the new design, e.g. MEMs needs the high aspect channel, but the RIE systems have many unexpected effects when the ratio of length and width is high. Furthermore, the increasing cost for the limited improvement of the CPU may make the companies stop to invest( the increasing cost versus the humble boost of processor performance may cast damp over investing large amount of money continuing R&D), or the profit shrink hugely make companies not incline to continue research and development. So it is not correct to ignore the market demand or only assume that the progress of computer is completely driven by some zealous scientists. No one denies Moore’s law is as great as his success in the IT market, meanwhile should no one denies neglect his luck, just like not to neglect the non-tech factors which influence the development of the CPU and DRAM. Adachi 发表于 2004-11-18 22:48 引用Trackback(0) | 编辑 评论 真长，要挣稿费么 oik ( ) 发表于 2004-11-19 10:01 ……真可怕，跟我们写书评似的 gaku ( ) 发表于 2004-11-20 05:15 fantastic! btw 今天我们又版聚了，来了很多新人…… neockn ( ) 发表于 2004-11-21 00:05 5555，我一直潜水，早就羡慕致死了。 有美女吗？ narcisuss ( ) 发表于 2004-11-21 01:26 新人里面没女的…… neockn ( ) 发表于 2004-11-21 01:35 啊，我没去成 dolores ( ) 发表于 2004-11-24 18:20 发表评论 最后更新 韩国之行・一 回来了・送你们新年礼物 忘年会・KTV・喝酒间的邪恶对谈 昨天剃头，今天平安？ AIR JORDAN 14和 FOAMPOSITE 别府温泉・三――酒，还是酒 我能用刷盘子来洗去纨绔的罪恶感吗？ 别府温泉・二 沉痛地告诉村狗们…… 别府温泉一日游・一