07:00 美国数据将确认美联储决定 ::

来源: BlogBus 原始链接: http://blogbus.com:80/blogbus/blog/diary.php?diaryid=385804 存档链接: https://web.archive.org/web/20041023194140id_/http://blogbus.com:80/blogbus/blog/diary.php?diaryid=385804

---信---惠--投---资--- 能够问心无愧地积累财富，是投资的好处之一。

取信于人，惠及他人，同时实现个人的自我价值，是我的人生目标。 <<<世界曾经拥有这样的中国 bbs讨论 | 首页 | 2004-09-12 07:00 美国数据将确认美联储决定 美东时间2004/9/12 19：00 北京时间 2004/9/13 7：00 欧元/美元 1.2280 美元/日元 109.33 英镑/美元 1.7979 美元/瑞郎 1.2556 澳元/美元 0.6962 美元/加元 1.2898 美国数据将确认美联储决定 by Ashraf Laidi 由于上周五的报告显示贸易赤字依然令人担忧，批发销售通胀温和，美元依然面临压力。8月生产物价指数下降0.1％，连续3个月下滑，由此确认通胀疲软，为美联储是否进一步紧缩蒙上阴影。尽管9月加息的可能性依然有90％，本周的美国8月消费者物价指数、零售销售和工业生产数据将有助于市场确认联邦公开市场委员会9月决定的结果。如果零售销售像两个月前那样再次下跌，消费者物价指数跟随生产物价指数下降，那么有关美联储本月后期是否紧缩的疑虑将会增大。不过，我们的确认为美元可能进一步疲软，因为投资者推断9月加息可能是年内最后一次紧缩。 另外，德国ZEW消费者信心指数，英国消费者物价指数和零售销售指数，以及加拿大消费者物价指数均是本周的关键数据。 英镑空头位于4个月高点，加元依旧受宠 英镑净多头上周减少75％至1，747份和约，为4个月最低水平。英镑近期消沉的主要原因是房屋价格下跌和零售销售疲软，如果本周美国数据不会令人失望，英镑空头可能进一步增加。欧元净多头下降13％至18，032份和约，表明投资者对于目前尚在盘整的货币不愿显著调整仓位。澳元6周内首次净头寸为空，净空头和约为672份，因为从房屋价格到GDP增长均显示经济普遍疲软。日元头寸也为空，较前期较少260％至832份和约。加元周内依然受到投资者青睐，净多头从上周的5个月高点增加41％至41，303份和约，连续11个月增长。瑞郎头寸连续7个月为空，不过超卖有所缓和，减少6％至7，660份和约。 日元基本面依然受到关注 日元因为美国数据反弹，回补了此前因为意外疲软的GDP修正所导致的全部损失。日本2季度实际GDP修正下调至0.3％（季比），低于0.8％的预期和前值0.4％。但是在美国贸易数据和生产物价指数公布后，日元成功将美元下拖100多点日元，至109.20。本周的货币政策会议记录可能透漏央行成员的经济评估，但是央行上周会议维持流动资金总量不变。 阻力见于100日均线上的110.25，关键阻力位于110.60高点。支撑始于109.15，之后是200日均线上的108.70，关键支撑位于108。 欧元位于1.23 由于联储的Janet Yellen等人近期的言论，美国疲软的数据报告和动荡的外部局势，欧元继周四下午冲击1.2230后，前两个交易日中运气进一步好转。只要贸易赤字维持在500亿美元之上，就足以引发对能否持续从外国投资者融资的担忧。尽管我们依然预期本月美联储可能加息，但是基于这可能成为年内最后一次紧缩的影响，美元未必能够进一步上扬。 市场关注8月下跌3.1点的德国ZEW经济预期指数本月是否进一步下跌。不过无论指数下跌与否，ZEW经济学家预期直到明年年初德国经济将稳步复苏。 欧元兑美元面临历史高点和7月中期高点组成的阻力趋势线上的1.23阻力，之后是1.2333――1.1374-1.2926上升通道的38％回撤位。关键阻力见于1.24。支撑始于200日均线上的1.2263，之后是1.2220和1.2180，关键支撑位于100日均线上的1.2138。 美国疲软数据能否挽救英镑？ 考虑到近期英国的疲软数据和英镑的下跌压力，投资者怀疑令人失望的美国数据能否成为阻止英镑跌破1.77的唯一因素。英镑投资者密切关注下周英国和美国的消费者物价指数和美国的工业生产和零售销售数据。英国消费者物价指数低于1.4％可能引发英镑进一步下跌。 英镑阻力位于1.80，之后是1.8030和1.8065-70，由于英国动荡的基本面，升破1.81还有一定距离。支撑始于前期支撑1.78，之后是1.776，更强支撑位于1.7688和1.7623。反弹阻力位于1.7920和1.7970。 加元可能从消费者物价指数上再获支撑 尽管加拿大8月新增就业7，000，差于增长20，000的预期，加元兑美元维持在1.29之下。预计本周加拿大核心消费者物价指数将稳定在1.9％，这将进一步推升加元。核心消费者物价指数（扣除8种变动剧烈因素）7月增长1.9％，为继6月增长1.7％后的年内最大增幅。 美元兑加元面临1.29阻力，之后是1.2950和1.3030。支撑始于1.2870，之后是1.2850和1.28，关键支撑见于1.2730。 The dollar remains pressured after Friday’s news showing persistent trade deficit concerns and a benign wholesale inflation. The 0.1% drop in August PPI marked the third decline in three months, thus affirming evidence of softening inflation and casting doubt on the need of further Fed tightening. Although chances of a September rate hike remain about 90%, this week’s US data on August CPI, retail sales and industrial production should help markets improve their certainty regarding the outcome of the September FOMC decision. In the event retails sales showed a decline as they did 2 months ago and the CPI drops as did the PPI, speculation would rise on whether the Fed would tighten later this month. Yet, we do see the possibility of further dollar weakness due to traders’ reasoning that a September tightening could well be the last of the year. Germany’s ZEW on consumer confidence, UK CPI and retail sales as well as Canada’s CPI will also be key. GBP Shorts at highest in 4 months, CAD Still Futures Favorite Sterling net longs tumbled 75% to 1,747 contracts last week, reaching their lowest in 4 months. The continuing gloom in the currency resulting from falling house prices and weakening retail sales could likely turn the currency into a next short in the event that this week’s US data do not disappoint. Euro net longs eased 13% to 18,032 contracts, reflecting speculators’ unwillingness to make significant bets in the consolidating currency. Speculators became net short in Aussie contracts for the first time in 6 weeks at 672 contracts as the economic weakness broadened from housing to GDP growth. JPY positions also turned negative, plunging 260% to 832 contracts. CAD continues to be favored by speculators on a weekly basis as net longs rose 41% to 41,303 contracts extending the currency’s net long positioning for the 11th straight week, from the prior week’s 5-month high. Swiss franc traders remained net short for the 7th straight month, but eased the oversold positions by 6% to 7,660 contracts. Yen fundamentals still in focus The Japanese currency was dealt a brief reprieve on Friday when it regained all of the declines initially triggered by the weaker than expected GDP revisions, when the currency recovered on the US data. Q2 real GDP was revised down to 0.3% q/q, worst than both 0.8% forecasts and the preliminary 0.4% reading. But the yen succeeded in dragging down the dollar by more than a full yen to 109.20 after the US reports on the trade deficit and producer inflation. This week’s monetary policy minutes may bear light on BoJ members’ economic assessment. But the central bank did leave the amount of liquidity unchanged when it met last week. Resistance seen at the 100 day MA of 110.25. Key resistance still acts at 110.60 high. Support starts at 109.15, followed by the 200-day MA of 108.70. Key support stands at 108. Euro treads $1.23 The euro’s fortunes improved in the last 2 sessions after Thursday afternoon’s spike to the $1.2230s following those remarks from Fed’s Janet Yellen, and Friday’s US data reports showed softening data and a continuously shaky US external side. As long as the trade deficit remained above the $50 billion mark, it sufficed to emit worries over the sustainability of the financing from foreign investors. Despite strong chances of a Septemeber Fed hike, the dollar could fail to show fresh gains on the increasing belief that it would be the last tightening of the year. But markets will want to see whether Germany’s ZEW economic expectations index will fall below following the 3.1-pointdrop in August. In spite of the decline, ZEW economists expect a moderate recovery for Germany’s economy until the beginning of next year. EURUSD faces key trend line resistance of $1.23, which extends from the all time high thru the mid July high. Next target seen at $1.2333―the 38% retracement of the $1.1374-1.2926 rise. Key pressure point seen at 1.24. Support starts at the 200-day MA of $1.2263, followed by $1.2220 and $1.2180. Key support now stands at 1.2138 (100 day ma). Will cable be saved by poor US data? Considering the unraveling weakness in the UK data and the downside pressure on sterling, traders wonder whether a disappointing round of US shall be the only factor preventing the currency from falling back below $1.77. Sterling traders will the week’s CPI data from the UK and the US as well as the industrial production and retail sales data from the US. A figure below 1.4% in UK CPI could also help trigger fresh sterling losses. GBPUSD faces resistance at $1.80, followed by 18030 and 1.8065-70. A breach of 1.81 remains farfetched simply due to shaky UK fundamentals. Support stars at Cable eyes prelim support at $1.78 followed by $1.7760. Further selling seen stabilizing at $1.7688 and $1.7623. Upside starts at $1.7920, followed by 1.7970. CAD could turn to CPI for fresh boost Despite a softer than expected employment report from Canada showing a 7K rise in August, undershooting expectations of a 20k rise, CAD held USD below 1.29. This week’s CPI data from Canada could expected to show core CPI steady at 1.9% should also further help boost the currency. The core CPI (excluding 8 most volatile items) rose 1.9% in the year ending in July, attaining its highest increase of the year following a 1.7% rise in June. USDCAD faces initial resistance at 1.29, followed by 1.2950, and 1.3030. Support starts at 1.2870, followed by 1.2850 and 1.28. Key foundation seen standing at 1.2730. soonway.com 发表于 2004-09-12 18:36 引用Trackback(0) | 编辑 评论 好久没看到了？呵呵！ 兄弟 ( ) 发表于 2004-09-16 18:59 发表评论 最后更新 07:00 美国数据将确认美联储决定 世界曾经拥有这样的中国 bbs讨论 <价值>封面故事：德隆是谁 --远山 新浪网友：中国一枚金牌成本7亿元 是俄罗斯28倍 股市潜规则，不可不知道的秘密 我回来了， 告别一段时间 16：45 由于耐用品疲软和油价高涨，美元回落 17:00 出奇疲软的就业重创美元 17:30 美元回落，纳指破位，油价高升 70年代生的人，处在一个比较尴尬的境界中：前面有许多需要追赶的背影，后面哗啦啦的跑着一群新生一代的人。稍一迟疑，前面的背影就不见了，再一迟疑，身后的脚步声就明显近了。

人的一生，也许就在这种尴尬中度过。